Trump’s trade war with China undermines his Middle Eastern alliances he claims to cherish

Ellee Low | Al-Arabiya

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US President Donald Trump’s latest press conference was meant to outline the next phase of Washington’s tariff escalation against China, but the session quickly turned into a geopolitical spectacle. He only spent minutes explaining the latest escalation in the US-China trade war before launching into a familiar attack on Iran, declaring his distaste for the Iranian leadership and labelling the nation a “stupid” one.

Moments later, he then praises America’s Middle Eastern partners as “cooperative” allies and insists the tariffs do not affect Saudi Arabia.

The contrast was stark: fierce hostility towards Iran yet warm assurances toward Arab states. However, beneath the rhetoric lies a deeper tension – Washington’s confrontations with both China and Iran are increasingly undermining the very alliances Trump claims are thriving.

Earlier this year in April when the tariffs took effect, Middle Eastern countries such as the UAE and KSA faced a 10 per cent tariff, while others face heavier ones like Syria with 41 per cent and Iraq with 39 per cent.

Many Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies rely heavily on China not only as a buyer of crude oil but also plays a significant role in financial and educational sectors as well as a supplier of construction materials, electronics, heavy machinery, and consumer goods.

The US-China tariff spiral initiated by Washington has raised global production costs ,disrupted supply chains, inflated prices for imports essential to the region’s economic diversification plans.

At the same time, Trump’s declaration of “hating” Iran and his aggressive stance toward Teheran reinforce the US expectation that Gulf allies will continue supporting American pressure strategies.

But this is happening precisely as tariffs reduce the region’s economic room to navigate.

The US relies heavily on Gulf states in several areas such as maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, intelligence coordination against Iran, stabilising global energy markets and countering Tehran’s influence in Iran, Syria and Lebanon.

Yet as the US juggles Iran tensions and a trade war with China, regional allies quietly question whether Washington can sustain both confrontations without asking the Middle East to absorb the fallout.

Trump’s open hostility toward Iran has long been a defining feature of his political identity. In his recent press conference, where he doubled down on having no love for the Iranian regime, fits squarely within that pattern. This disfavour of his is not new but poses a new question in the US-China trade war: how would Iran relying more on China for resources or even an alliance affect US-Middle East relations?

Any escalation in US-Iran hostility risks derailing the cautious diplomatic engagements underway in the region. Moreover, as Gulf states see China as a crucial economic partner in energy trade, infrastructure, and technology. Washington’s China-centric pressure campaign becomes more entangled with its Iran policy than ever before.

Projects under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the UAE’s industrial expansion, and Qatar’s logistics transformation all depend on stable trade flows and affordable procurement. When tariffs drive up costs in China, they drive up costs in the Gulf. So, when America demands allies take sides in its rivalry with Beijing, it risks undermining the very relationships Trump claims to value “more than anything”.

Trump’s praise for Middle Eastern allies was genuine. His hostility toward Iran was expected. But admiration and anger do not make a strategy.

Now, the region wonders if Trump took into consideration how the implementation of the tariffs on the whole world was well thought out and if alliances do not matter to the US anymore.

If Washington truly sees Middle Eastern allies as indispensable, then the region hopes that future US administrations will need to acknowledge a hard truth: policies designed to weaken China often weaken America’s closest partners too.